Impending tax rises temper business confidence - report

Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce chief executive Henrietta Brealey

The impact of tax rises weighed heavily on Greater Birmingham businesses during the final quarter of 2024, according to newly published research.

The report, published by Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce for quarter four, reveals concerns among firms following business tax increases announced in the Chancellor's Autumn Budget.

This led to a fall in recruitment activity and the significant increase in the number of companies expressing concerns over price pressures.

However, there were signs of resilience from the region's businesses, with both domestic and export activity picking up towards the end of the year.

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The report, produced in partnership with Birmingham City University, revealed 47 per cent of firms increased their UK sales (up by seven per cent in quarter three), although nearly one in five (19 per cent) reported a decrease.

Export activity, which lagged behind domestic sales throughout 2024, showed signs of improvement in quarter four, the report says, with 33 per cent of companies reporting an increase in sales, custom and bookings - the highest level since the second quarter of 2023.

Meanwhile, data suggests employer cost implications arising from the 2024 Autumn Budget, such as national insurance contributions and minimum wage increases, may have contributed to a tempering of hiring activity.

Just 26 per cent of firms expanded their workforce in the period, down four per cent from quarter three and ten per cent since the start of 2024.

Less than a third of businesses (30 per cent) expected workforce growth in the coming quarter while just 44 per cent of firms said they were operating at full capacity - the lowest level since the first quarter of 2021 during the pandemic.

Business confidence weakened considerably over the last quarter, with just 47 per cent of firms anticipating improved profitability - a decline of ten per cent over the past three months.

Concerns over profitability were linked to rising costs forecasted for 2025, with half of businesses surveyed anticipating price increases in the next quarter.

Henrietta Brealey, chief executive of Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce, said: "In light of the business tax rises announced in the recent Autumn Budget and the introduction of the Make Work Pay programme, it was perhaps no surprise to see a record number of firms expressing concerns around the impact of corporate taxation.

"Profitability and turnover projections were also impacted as businesses continue to operate in an uncertain climate.