UK house prices surged to a record high in January ahead of stamp duty changes

New figures reveal that the average UK house price reached a record £299,138 in January, just months before the first-time buyer stamp duty relief is set to end in April.

House prices increased by 0.7% month on month and by 3% year on year, with London maintaining the highest average house price at £548,288, noting a 2.8% rise year on year, as reported by City AM.

"Affordability is still a challenge for many would-be buyers, but the market’s resilience is noteworthy," commented Amanda Bryden, Halifax's Head of Mortgages. Bryden predicts mortgage rates will "hover" between 4% and 5% in 2025.

House prices continue to be elevated against average earnings; the first-time buyer (FTB) house price to earnings ratio was at 5.0 at the end of 2024, significantly exceeding the long-term average of 3.9.

However, Braden highlighted there is still "strong demand for new mortgages and growth in lending".

"With a stamp duty increase looming, some of this demand may have come from first-time buyers eager to complete transactions before the end of March," she added.

After March 31, first-time buyers will be subject to the same stamp duty rates as other buyers.

Tomer Aboody, director of MT Finance, suggested that the market isn't as robust as the figures imply, stating: "While the numbers suggest a confident market, actual growth in prices is minimal as buyers face affordability challenges."

Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, commented on the property market's robustness: "The full impact of the Budget has yet to be factored in, so a true indication of where we are would be around spring, when the stamp duty holiday ends."

He also noted that the firm prices can't solely be attributed to a shortage of properties; demand plays an equally significant role, saying, "On the ground, recent price resilience has been just as much to do with higher demand as much as insufficient and appropriate stock in more popular areas."

Continuing with the UK’s regional property market analysis, Northern Ireland currently boasts the strongest annual property price growth at 5.9 per cent. In Wales, house prices saw a 3.6 per cent increase compared to the previous year, with the average property price now standing at £227,397.